French Resistance or French Surrender?

France is easily one of the coolest countries on the planet. 

Between its cultural vivacity and the independent intellectual esprit de coeur of its citizens, France arguably more so than any country  influences global culture on a per capita basis. 

France's empire may be long deceased however French culture today spans the globe. 

The country's great cultural industries and exports depend on free trade, cultural openness, and a willingness to engage the world.

And yet the dreary reality of politics, society and upcoming French Presidential elections threatens the country's outward looking successes.

French cool.... unfortunately can't fix French reality. The country's de-industrialization over the last quarter century has brought on a brutal world where youth unemployment exceeds 25%.

A long march towards the same old crazy story... Donald Trump... no Marine Le Pen.

The European Union is burning. America is retreating. Russia is gaining. Britain is bonkers. France needs to hold the line but will it? 

The upcoming French Presidential elections will determine the fate of Europe as a political body and with it a large part of the globalist project.

Pollsters predict a run-off between Marine Le Pen and another. It is unclear as to whether any mainstream political candidate has the capacity or popularity to deal with this menace.

Marine Le Pen is a bigot, a fraud and possibly (hopefully not) the next President of France.

Grabbing Mexico by the Pussy

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The Mexicans are the real losers of the US election.

Mexican companies and workers have been one of the greatest beneficiaries of the North American Free Trade Agreement and globalization. The country in nominal terms is the 15th largest economy ($1.1 trillion USD) and 11th ($2.3 trillion) when measured by purchasing power parity globally. It climbed out its nearly frozen economy and became a major exporter of consumer electronics, OEM manufacturing, and vehicle production.

Donald Trump's singling out of Mexico and globalization as the source of the collapse of US manufacturing seems inspired by Ross Perot's 1992 statement that trade agreements were sending jobs overseas and that an agreement with Mexico was a "giant sucking sound [of US jobs] going south".

As a good friend, the Canadian Government is already looking at throwing Mexico under the bus as part of preliminary discussions with the new US Government to set up a bilateral trading agreement to replace NAFTA. Prime Minister Trudeau is scheduled to meet Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner in Calgary on January 24th as part of efforts by the Trump administration to reach out to Ottawa.

Meanwhile, President Henrique Pena Nieto faces difficult questions at home on a projected slow down to the Mexican economy and very large uncertainty linked to its primary export market the US.

If indeed NAFTA collapses into a bilateral Canadian-US agreement the real question is what happens to Mexico? The country has sought to expand trade in recent years and signed free trade agreements with 44 countries such as the EU, Israel, EFTA, Japan and various other countries. This has not brought the necessary gains in export markets as still nearly 80 percent of exports went to the US in 2013.

In other words, Trump's got Mexico by the pussy.

2017 - The Year of the Trump Card on Trade

This week global decision makers are meeting for the 2017 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The post-Cold War global institutional order arguably faces its most serious challenge with the election of Donald Trump, Brexit, looming elections in Italy and France, the European migrant crisis and worsening economic equality.

Donald Trump's pre-inauguration threat of imposing a 35 percent tax on the US import of luxury German cars just days before Davos epitomizes the fundamental discord between populist and globalist value systems.

However, the likelihood that Trump will successfully pass legislation that imposes new tariffs on European exports to the United States is unlikely given that the majority of Republicans in Congress are pro-free trade.

This institutional opposition to his populist and local mandate means that other more radical strategies could be pursued by the incoming administration.

President-elect Trump does have the constitutionally mandated power to withdraw from treaties without congressional input. There is recent precedence with President George W. Bush's unilateral withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in June 2002.

The post-WWII international framework in trade and politics was largely established by the international treaty system and there is very little to stop the incoming Presidential administration to simply pick-up and leave where it chooses to do so. Indeed, trade agreements such as NAFTA could very face a Trump chopping block. Alternatively, Trump could use this threat as a bargaining chip to force congress to impose modest tariffs against countries instead of an executive forced total withdraw.

It is going to be an interesting year. In particular, the future appointment of a new Justice to the US Supreme Court could be very influential in determining the future interpretation of the separation of legislative and executive powers.

A Trump appointment not surprisingly may be distinct in their support for the expansion of executive purview, something that contrasts deeply with Republican lawmakers' policy over the last 30 years.

Climate Hacking

The Washington Post reports that the scientific community across the United States is secretly copying and backing up publicly owned climate change data out of the fear that the incoming Trump administration will delete or destroy data that disagrees with its ideology.

Key appointed members of the Trump Cabinet have already sought a list of names of those civil servants involved in US government climate change policy who participated in climate negotiations. Scientists are accordingly worried that the incoming administration will target environmental policy specialists and climate experts.

Scientists, lawyers, database managers and other members of civil society have even sought jurisdictional protection by locating retrieved data in foreign jurisdictions such as Canada. The University of Toronto is involved in archiving Environmental Protection Agency information on climate change, toxins, air, water and other information at high risk of being deleted.

The precautions seem reasonable as a similar change of governments in Canada resulting in the election of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper resulted in the deletion and destruction of environmental records.

US Electoral College Vote - Russian Briefing

So you may or may not know that the US election isn't over? How so you may ask? Well - because of the country's third world democratic system actual votes by citizens don't count. The electoral college is comprised of 538 electors comprising the Electoral College and they will meet on December 19, 2016 to determine the results of the US election.

Electors are not legally required to vote along with the majority of voters in their state despite state based provisions that they vote in line with Winner Takes All standards (except Maine and Nebraska). There have been over 150 instances of faithless electors in the US voting system and one instance of them contributing to a constitutional crisis during the 1836 election.

In light of the CIA's recent assessment that there was active Russian digital intervention against Clinton during the election cycle, members of the electoral college are reportedly seeking a briefing on the matter.

So what does this spell? In theory, if the evidence is strong enough - Clinton would need 38 Electors to switch their vote and abandon their pledges.  Seems crazy but it isn't impossible? There would be no legal repercussions for faithless electors.

To make matters worse, if it did get to that point and a decision was required by the Supreme Court. That organization is currently in deadlock comprising 8 justices as a result of the US Republicans unwillingness to consider Merrick Garland.

Things could get interesting!

Identity Politics, Social Justice Warriors and the Collapse of the American Left

Left wing politics are in trouble these days as right wing populism continues to break out across Europe and the West after the Brexit Vote, the US election and now more recently the failure of Italy's constitutional referendum.

Although largely neglected since the end of the Cold War, the rise of reactionary right wing populism functions on some level as a re-emergence of class warfare.  Working class whites in the UK, US and Europe whose economic and medical living standards have declined in actual terms over the last quarter century are moving in mass towards populism.

The brutal decline in quality of life and economic well being was documented by Princeton scholars Anne Case and Angus Deaton in their recent journal article titled, "Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century". The study found a quiet epidemic responsible for taking the lives of over half a million Americans over the last 15 years. The rise in morbidity is mirrored by a corresponding increase in prescription pain killers and opioid addiction to the point where one in three working class white Americans report chronic pain or sciatica.

The dramatic collapse in living standards of labour occurred at the same time as the leadership of left wing parties, academia, civil servants and human resource professionals all moved towards identity politics as their philosophy du jour. Unfortunately, what this meant in real terms was that the traditional left wing leadership basically abandoned their base and started trying to solve non-existent problems instead of tackling issues linked to their base's interest.

Bi-partisan commitment of decision makers to globalization without implementing support measures like re-training or improved public sector management practices exacerbated this problem further by failing to deliver.

The dogma of political correctness and the associated social justice warriors have been so focused on niche issues that solving real world problems that plague everyone are relegated to afterthoughts.

This relegation of real concerns and replacement with a narrative blaming non-Hispanic whites for their historical privilege galvanized a reaction against identity politics and left wing leadership. In a community where, morbidity and addiction rates are skyrocketing while good jobs were disappearing, messages blaming that same community for society's problems naturally fell on deaf ears.

Donald Trump saw the gap between the leadership in both parties and the citizens' grass roots and exploited it.

Vancouver, Canada - Centre for Criminal Financing

Behind the lululemon pants, self-righteous activists and veneer of decency, Vancouver operates largely absent of corporate governance.

The last two years really haven't been good for Vancouver's finance sectors's facade of regulatory control.  The United States' Department of Justice (DOJ), the Office of Foreign Asset Control and the Postal Inspection Service announced civil and criminal actions against Vancouver-based PacNet Service Limited after officially designating it a Transnational Criminal Organization.

PacNet is accused of deliberately ignoring regulatory orders while processing payments for mail order scams on an industrial level and enabling fraud against consumers for over 20 years. A copy of the DOJ's announcement can be found here.

Canadian and British Columbian regulators were caught with their pants down including the national agency FINTRAC. To date, Canadian authorities have largely taken a hands off approach to the case - no raids, no regulatory filings, and no publicly reported investigations. 

Canadian enforcement failings are emblematic of a general trend north of the border towards process over content in terms of regulatory proceedings and government action. In contrast, American authorities are already seeking sentences of up to 20 years against PacNet associates Michael Rossi and Glen Burke of Las Vegas.

Oh Canada!